![]() We started the campaign using the regular-season point total market as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best preseason measurement. These will be the final moneyline projections of the regular season since the best bet for the first full week of April is to take time to regroup and not give back the profits made value-betting during this long NHL season. Thoroughly confused? That's what happens in the final weeks of the NHL, NFL, NBA, and MLB seasons. On the flip side, you're not likely to get a deal on Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay, or any other club with its playoffs seeding set. A good team is more than just a few players It's a collective - culture, coaching, and player development. But it's another thing to fade a squad like the Bruins even after they sit their stars for rest purposes. Once players are on the ice, they aren't thinking about the standings when they make the snap decision about where to shoot, pinch, or dive to block a shot.įor good teams, it's one thing to assume that a club doesn't necessarily have the motivation to win to secure a playoff seed. The reality is pressure can only cause problems. However, it's another thing to pay the tax oddsmakers charge on backing a club sitting on the playoff bubble just because it has more theoretical motivation. Plus, the market will lean to the favorite even more, so the only play is to back the inferior squad, which isn't a particularly fun way to finish your campaign either.įor mediocre teams, it's one thing to think about a club relative to its playoff position and the concept of a must-win game. Management often decrees that certain goaltenders start and lesser players get more ice time in the name of "giving opportunities to the young guys." Why not just bet against the bad teams, then? Well, those young players aren't trying to look bad and are giving everything they have to get noticed. ![]() Still, it's another thing when losing the final few games guarantees as many draft lottery balls as possible. The NHL regular season's final weeks are not to be trusted.įor bad teams, it's one thing to think about a club relative to its draft position in February or March. ![]()
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